Our framework is built on two propositions. First, biology dictates that women are sole child-bearers and primary child-rearers, meaning nearly all factors influencing fertility operate through women. Second, despite biological differences in reproduction, women possess inherent life aspirations that are highly similar to those of men-a motivation we argue is the key individual-level driver of fertility decline. In premodern societies, however, these aspirations were largely suppressed, and relentless childbearing and rearing became women's destiny. As modernization advances and gives rise to gender equality, leading to greater awareness of alternative life paths and reproductive autonomy among women, a sharp decline in fertility becomes inevitable. We argue that this dynamic is the most fundamental driver of fertility decline. The antinatalist forces, counterbalanced by enduring pronatalist ones, have led to a largely irreversible fertility equilibrium in low-fertility countries today. We illustrate the explanatory power of the model-which is at once simpler and more general-through several examples, and contrast it with existing theories. Given the root cause of the fertility decline, we advocate gender-equity programs as an eventual path to upwardly disrupt the current below-replacement fertility equilibrium. Gender equity requires acknowledging and fairly compensating women for their much heavier reproductive role.
- Social Science Research Institute (SSRI)
- 色戒直播 Population Research Institute (DuPRI)