Nicholas Sambanis (Yale) will present his talk, "The Wisdom of the Crowd: Beliefs 色戒直播 Others' Beliefs and Group Conformism in Foreign Policy."
Abstract:
Do beliefs about others' beliefs shape individual foreign policy preferences? Analyzing experimental data from several cases of interstate disputes over territory, we show that individual preferences for belligerence in foreign policy are shaped by expectations of how likely others are to support belligerence. When the nation's sovereignty and identity are threatened, citizens believe that their co-nationals are likely to support hawkish policies and they conform to those beliefs partly because they view hawkishness as normatively appropriate when the national identity is threatened, regardless of the expected costs of conflict. Yet, if perceptions of public opinion change and the majority is viewed as more dovish than previously assumed, this reduces support for belligerence. Group conformism can be harnessed to de-escalate foreign policy conflicts even in periods of nationalist upsurge.
- Political Science